AGP Executive Report

Myanmar-India Border Security: Myanmar President U Min Aung Hlaing, after a five-day India visit, urged border stakeholders to cooperate peacefully and through democratic processes, while Myanmar’s leadership reiterated it will not allow its territory to be used against India’s security interests. Connectivity & Trade Diplomacy: India and Myanmar pushed forward cooperation on trade and connectivity, including the Rupee-Kyat settlement push and plans to complete stalled projects as India seeks a stronger “Neighbourhood First/Act East” role. Anti-Online Scam Law: Myanmar’s Ministry of Home Affairs submitted an Anti-Online Scam Bill to parliament, proposing a central anti-scam committee, regional structures, an Anti-Scam Centre, cross-agency data sharing, asset freezes, and life imprisonment or death penalty for major offences. China-Myanmar Outreach: China’s top diplomat Wang Yi met Myanmar FM Tin Maung Swe in Beijing, signaling readiness to deepen political trust and practical cooperation with Myanmar’s new government. Rakhine Property Dispute: Rohingya residents in Buthidaung say land taken from displaced families is being used for a new market under armed-group control, raising fresh concerns over compensation and return prospects. Humanitarian Strain in India: Mizoram CM Lalduhoma warned of a likely fresh influx of Myanmar displaced people, citing ongoing conflict and placing further burden on the state. Regional Border Fencing: India began Indo-Myanmar border fencing work in Arunachal’s Changlang and Longding amid tight security, with local officials citing progress and militant attacks on fencing teams. Cross-border Crime Context: India and regional partners also highlighted the growing scale of cyber and transnational fraud networks operating across Myanmar-linked compounds, reinforcing the push for tougher enforcement.

Anti-Scam Law: Myanmar’s Ministry of Home Affairs submitted an Anti-Online Scam Bill to parliament, proposing a central anti-scam committee, regional units and an Anti-Scam Centre, with harsh penalties up to life imprisonment and the death penalty for major offences, plus powers to freeze transactions and seize scam-linked assets. Diplomacy: Myanmar Vice President U Nyo Saw departed for Russia to attend SPIEF 2026, while Foreign Minister Tin Maung Swe is set to visit China for talks on deepening the “shared future” partnership. India-Myanmar Border Politics: Myanmar President U Min Aung Hlaing urged border stakeholders to cooperate peacefully and through democratic processes after a five-day goodwill visit to India, as India continues border fencing and security pressure along the frontier. Regional Security & Cross-Border Crime: India’s ED carried out raids in Mizoram’s Champhai targeting a cross-border supari smuggling network linked to Myanmar. Humanitarian/Information: Myanmar’s foreign ministry urged Timor-Leste to stop statements it says harm Myanmar’s image, citing ASEAN non-interference principles. Economic Signaling: Myanmar praised the ASEAN–EAEU relationship as a growth driver at SPIEF, highlighting digital economy, energy and food security cooperation.

Myanmar-India Diplomacy: Myanmar President Min Aung Hlaing’s India visit is framed as a bid to reverse Naypyidaw’s isolation, with talks reportedly covering security along the 1,600-km border, trade, rare earths, healthcare and connectivity. Border Security Spillovers: Bangladesh reports deaths from Myanmar-linked stray war munitions near the border, underscoring how Myanmar’s civil war is turning frontier areas into a widening security crisis. Cross-Border Crime Enforcement: Bangladesh Coast Guard arrested nine smugglers and seized 650 bags of cement bound for Myanmar, showing continued pressure on illicit supply routes. Regional Economic/Connectivity Politics: BIMSTEC’s maritime transport cooperation deal entered into force after Myanmar’s ratification, leaving only a few holdouts and highlighting India’s push for a Bay of Bengal connectivity order amid great-power rivalry. Humanitarian/Protection Gaps: The ILO warns ASEAN maternity protection remains uneven, especially for women in informal work and migrant workers—an issue that intersects with Myanmar-linked displacement and labor vulnerabilities. Conflict-Linked Violence in Thailand: Thai police say a drone explosion killed three Myanmar migrants working near the border, with unclear responsibility amid ongoing Myanmar fighting.

India-Myanmar diplomacy: Myanmar President Min Aung Hlaing wrapped up a five-day visit to India, meeting PM Narendra Modi and Indian officials on trade, connectivity, border security and defence—while India reiterated support for “enduring peace” and an inclusive process involving all stakeholders in Myanmar. Security cooperation: India also pressed Naypyitaw on concerns about insurgent activity and cross-border spillovers, with Myanmar assuring it would not allow its territory to be used against India’s security interests. Regional infrastructure: The visit highlighted maritime links after Hlaing’s stop at Jawaharlal Nehru Port, with interest in India’s maritime sector and knowledge exchange tied to projects like Vadhvan Port. China outreach: Myanmar FM Tin Maung Swe is set to visit China (June 4–6) at Beijing’s invitation, underscoring continued balancing between major partners. Cross-border crime: Separately, Vietnam, Laos, China and Myanmar launched a joint anti-drug crackdown targeting precursor trafficking along shared borders. Humanitarian pressure: UN reporting warns that funding cuts could worsen conditions for Rohingya refugees, as aid gaps deepen in Bangladesh. Rights and scrutiny: A global labour-rights index again lists Myanmar among the worst performers, reflecting ongoing concerns about workers’ rights and repression.

Myanmar-India Diplomacy: Myanmar President U Min Aung Hlaing’s India visit continues to drive headlines, with New Delhi stressing sovereignty and security assurances—especially that Myanmar territory won’t be used against India—while also pressing for a democratic transition and inclusive peace process. Trade & Finance: India and Myanmar agreed to deepen bilateral trade via the Rupee-Kyat settlement mechanism, expand cooperation in agro-processing, energy, mining, and improve banking and digital payments. Connectivity & Ports: The Myanmar delegation toured Jawaharlal Nehru Port in Mumbai and discussed maritime cooperation, while talks also highlighted stalled regional connectivity projects like Kaladan and the India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway. Domestic Governance Pressure: In Naypyidaw, an MP called the odd-even vehicle rule a “real problem” for rural families, linking it to fuel rationing hardships. Human Rights & Civic Space: A new study links Buddhist nationalist narratives to post-coup repression of women’s and LGBTQ rights advocates. Security Spillover: Three Myanmar migrants were killed in Thailand after a drone exploded near the border, underscoring cross-border risks from Myanmar’s conflict. Regional Crime Cooperation: Mekong countries discussed building shared mechanisms to tackle transnational crime and online scams. International Spotlight: Photojournalist Sai Zaw Thaike received an RSF Courage Award while serving a long prison sentence. China Engagement: Myanmar’s FM Tin Maung Swe is set to visit China, alongside ongoing China-Myanmar cultural exchanges.

Myanmar-India Security Assurances: President Min Aung Hlaing told PM Narendra Modi Myanmar’s territory will not be used against India’s security interests, as both sides also pushed border management and counter-insurgency cooperation. Trade & Connectivity Push: The leaders agreed to deepen bilateral trade via the rupee-kyat settlement, with focus on agro-processing, energy, mining and faster delivery of Kaladan and the India-Myanmar-Thailand highway. Critical Minerals/Rare Earths: India and Myanmar said they will stay in close touch on critical minerals and rare earths, while India highlighted UN peacekeeping-focused training ties. Humanitarian Pressure on Rohingya: UNHCR warned that shrinking funding could worsen conditions for about 1.2 million Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh, with return hopes fading amid ongoing violence in Rakhine. Regional Info Integrity: Cambodia’s information minister proposed a Mekong fact-checking and rapid-response network to counter fake news, including shared platforms and coordinated verification during crises. Myanmar Conflict Spillover: Fighting near the Thai border displaced thousands, while Shan State saw deadly blasts tied to stored mining explosives, underscoring instability and civilian risk.

India–Myanmar High-Level Talks: Myanmar President Min Aung Hlaing met Indian PM Narendra Modi in New Delhi, with both sides stressing trade, connectivity, border management, defence cooperation and people-to-people ties, while India said it raised concerns about armed group activity near the border and the refugee spillover. Security Assurance: Modi received a clear pledge that Myanmar territory will not be used against India’s security interests, and both sides discussed critical minerals and rare earths alongside stalled connectivity projects. Media Crackdown: Myanmar’s Ministry of Information revoked licenses of three news agencies, citing violations under the Printing and Publishing Enterprise Law and warning against further publishing via any platform. Border-Linked Violence: A major explosives blast in TNLA-held Kaung Tat village in Shan State killed at least 46 and reportedly destroyed hundreds of homes, with TNLA calling it an accidental explosion tied to stored mining explosives. Rohingya Camp Violence: Reports describe ongoing clashes and killings among Rohingya armed groups in Cox’s Bazar camps, underscoring how internal camp power struggles fuel insecurity. Humanitarian Funding: Finland increased funding for Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh amid aid shortfalls, targeting education, skills and resilience. Public Health Procurement: SK Bioscience won its first UNICEF flu vaccine contract, including deliveries to Myanmar.

India–Myanmar High-Level Talks: PM Narendra Modi met Myanmar President U Min Aung Hlaing in New Delhi, stressing border security, spillover from armed groups, and refugee impacts; India also raised concerns about insurgent activity near the border and pressed for civilian safety. Connectivity & Trade: Both sides backed faster delivery of stalled projects like the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project and the India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway, and agreed to expand trade via the Rupee-Kyat settlement mechanism, including cooperation in agro-processing, energy, mining, and petroleum. Cyber Scam Cooperation: India said it has repatriated 2,411 Indians from Myanmar-based cyber scam compounds and is working to bring back 150+ more, calling for wider regional coordination. Democracy & Peace Process: Modi urged Myanmar to pursue democratic transition and an inclusive peace process with all stakeholders, while India reiterated that sustained engagement—not disengagement—guides its policy. Deadly Blast in Shan State: Separate reports described a massive explosion at a mining explosives storage site near the China border in TNLA-controlled Namhkam township, with death tolls reported around 55 and dozens injured; TNLA called it an “accidental explosion” and said gelignite was involved. Rights Watch: A new report on Rohingya women in Thailand and Malaysia highlighted long-term statelessness, detention risks, and restricted access to work and education. Labour Rights Index: The ITUC’s 2026 Global Rights Index flagged Myanmar among worst performers for workers’ rights, alongside several countries with severe restrictions on unions and strikes.

Explosion in Rebel-Controlled Shan State: A blast at a Kaung Tat/Kaungtup village site near the China border in Namhkam Township killed at least 55 people (including children) and injured dozens, after explosives stored for mining operations reportedly detonated accidentally; TNLA said an investigation is underway and relief will follow. India-Myanmar High-Level Engagement: Myanmar President U Min Aung Hlaing met India’s PM Narendra Modi in New Delhi after earlier calls with NSA Ajit Doval and EAM S Jaishankar, with talks focused on strengthening bilateral ties, connectivity and trade. Geopolitics and Policy Debate: Maung Zarni warned that India’s pragmatic engagement with Myanmar’s military leadership clashes with realities on the ground as ethnic armed groups control large areas and the Rohingya crisis deepens. Regional Security Context: The week’s coverage also highlights how Myanmar’s conflict intersects with cross-border dynamics and regional diplomacy, while other major international developments continued to shape the broader environment.

Explosion in Shan State: A blast at a building reportedly storing mining explosives in Kaung Tat/Kaungtup village (Namkham/Namhkam Township) near the China border killed at least 45–55 people and injured dozens (reports cite 70+), with rescue teams still searching amid claims of damaged homes and possible child casualties; the Ta’ang National Liberation Army says it was an “accidental explosion” and that the explosives were linked to mining/quarrying operations. Internal Security & Civilian Impact: The incident underscores how conflict areas and informal explosives supply chains are turning into mass-casualty disasters, while casualty figures vary across local outlets and international reporting. Mob Violence Watch: A separate rights update says mob violence in May hit a six-month high, with 32 killed and 71 critically injured across dozens of incidents, despite repeated government assurances. Myanmar-India Diplomacy: In New Delhi, Myanmar President U Min Aung Hlaing met India’s NSA Ajit Doval and earlier S Jaishankar, with talks expected to focus on border security, connectivity, and trade as India deepens engagement under its “Neighbourhood First” approach. Rohingya Aid: Finland announced a EUR 2 million UNHCR contribution for Rohingya support in Bangladesh as funding gaps worsen camp conditions. Regional Economy Pressure: Reporting also flags strain on Myanmar’s retail sector as fuel supplies tighten, adding to hardship for civilians already hit by conflict and shocks.

Myanmar-India Diplomacy: Myanmar President Min Aung Hlaing arrived in India for a five-day visit, beginning with prayers at Bodh Gaya’s Mahabodhi temple, then moving to New Delhi where EAM S. Jaishankar met him and praised his “positive sentiment” on deepening ties ahead of talks with PM Narendra Modi; India says the agenda spans connectivity, trade, border security and broader cooperation, while analysts frame the trip as Myanmar’s bid for a more balanced foreign policy amid ongoing internal conflict and China’s influence. Regional Security Cooperation: India’s PRAGATI 2026 multilateral exercise wrapped up in Meghalaya, with 13 countries and 400+ troops training on counter-terrorism and interoperability, including Myanmar participation—another signal of Myanmar’s re-entry into regional military engagement. Defense Industry Link: At Singapore’s Shangri-La Dialogue, India’s Defence Secretary said a BrahMos deal with Vietnam is already signed (not yet publicly announced) and Indonesia’s pact is in final stages, underscoring India’s growing defense export push across ASEAN. Myanmar Conflict Diplomacy Idea: Timor-Leste President Jose Ramos-Horta floated a proposal to guide Myanmar’s warring sides “under a tent” with a retired regional general to enable humanitarian access, reflecting continued international search for workable peace frameworks.

Myanmar-India Diplomacy: President Min Aung Hlaing has begun a five-day official visit to India, landing in Bodh Gaya before talks with Indian President Droupadi Murmu and PM Narendra Modi, with New Delhi framing the agenda around trade, connectivity, border security, and “civilisational” ties. Regional Security & China Factor: Analysts say the trip signals Myanmar’s push for more space beyond China, while India seeks to manage border risks and protect access to rare-earth interests. ASEAN-Russia Track: ASEAN leaders plan a commemorative summit with Russian President Putin in June, underscoring the bloc’s uneven but ongoing engagement with Moscow despite UN condemnation votes. Conflict Spillover in Kayin: Fighting around Lay Kay Kaw in Myawaddy has driven 2,503 people toward Thailand, where Thai authorities are temporarily sheltering displaced families. Humanitarian & Rights: The UN reports conflict-related sexual violence rose sharply in 2025, with Myanmar cited for continued use of sexual violence in detention settings. Anti-Scam/Crime Response: Myanmar repatriated 75 nationals from Cambodia’s online scam compounds, while wider regional enforcement continues against trafficking networks.

Myanmar-India diplomacy: President U Min Aung Hlaing’s first official visit to India starts May 30, with talks with PM Modi on June 1 covering border security, connectivity and economic ties; India signals a “pragmatic” approach toward Myanmar’s military-backed leadership. Regional security and defence: India’s NSA Ajit Doval met Russia’s maritime leadership in Moscow and also met Myanmar’s NSA Tin Aung San, reviewing defence/security cooperation and connectivity. Border trade: The Myawady–Mae Sot No. 2 cargo bridge reopened May 28, resuming Myanmar–Thailand trade after a long closure tied to conflict. Cross-border crime cooperation: Thailand and Thai authorities supported the rescue of four Chinese nationals freed from a Myanmar call-center trafficking operation, underscoring anti-trafficking coordination. Chin State offensive (analysis): A look at Myanmar’s push in Chin State highlights strategic implications for India and Bangladesh along key trade routes. Cybercrime crackdown spillover: Cambodia deported 240 people (including 75 Myanmar nationals) linked to online scams, while the FBI announced a major cross-border scam compound crackdown that also named a Myanmar militia. Governance pressure in Manipur: ANSAM issued a four-day ultimatum over six missing Naga hostages and demanded action on killings and SoO arrangements. Domestic policy signals: Myanmar and China signed a MoU for 2026 Mekong–Lancang Cooperation Special Fund projects, with Myanmar set to implement eight projects across sectors. Fuel pricing grievance: Mon State fuel reference prices remain higher than other regions, prompting local questions ahead of the Hluttaw session.

India–Myanmar Diplomacy: President Min Aung Hlaing will travel to India from May 30 to June 3, holding talks with PM Narendra Modi on June 1 and visiting Bodh Gaya and Mumbai, as New Delhi frames the trip around trade, connectivity, and “civilisational” ties—while Myanmar’s exiled opposition calls him a “terrorist junta leader.” China–Myanmar Regional Funding: Myanmar and China signed an MoU in Nay Pyi Taw for the 2026 Mekong–Lancang Cooperation Special Fund, with eight projects spanning agriculture, energy, water management, MSMEs, and cultural cooperation. Fuel Pricing Pressure: Mon State’s fuel reference prices remain higher than other regions under the May 29 update, renewing local questions about why costs are not falling despite government changes. ASEAN–Russia Outreach: ASEAN leaders plan a commemorative summit with Russian President Putin in June in Kazan, with Myanmar listed among member states. Cross-border Crime Crackdown: The FBI announced a record $8bn crypto seizure and hundreds of arrests tied to “scam compounds,” including the Democratic Karen Benevolent Army in Myanmar. Humanitarian/Conflict Lens: A new UN blacklist adds Israeli and Russian security forces for conflict-related sexual violence, with Myanmar also referenced among countries where such violations have been documented. Food Security Under Strain: Farmers in Myanmar’s rice belt warn that fuel and fertiliser shortages—worsened by the Iran war’s supply shocks—could push them out of farming.

Myanmar-India Diplomacy: President Min Aung Hlaing will travel to India from May 30 to June 3 for his first foreign trip as president, starting in Bodh Gaya, then meeting PM Narendra Modi in New Delhi and visiting Mumbai for business talks—an agenda framed around “historical and civilisational ties,” trade and defence, but likely watched closely as fighting intensifies near India’s border areas. Opposition Backlash: India-based Myanmar opposition groups and the NUG plan protests, calling the visit a legitimisation of a “terrorist junta leader.” Regional Security Context: A separate IISS Asia-Pacific security assessment warns the region can’t be treated as “fully at peace,” pointing to chokepoints and Myanmar-related post-coup instability as part of wider strategic risk. Cross-border Crime Crackdown: Reports on Southeast Asia’s scam crackdown highlight how Myanmar-linked criminal networks and “scam compounds” are drawing international enforcement pressure, including major crypto seizures and arrests. Domestic Governance & Services: Myanmar’s electricity ministry says it’s planning new power and energy projects to meet rising demand, while Yangon-Mandalay expressway toll gates are upgrading to technology-based fee collection.

Myanmar–India ties: Reports say junta leader Min Aung Hlaing may visit India in late May/early June, with India for Myanmar and the diaspora planning protests over his role after the April “sham” presidency. Border conflict & reconstruction: The military says it has regained control in Chin’s Falam, Tedim and Tonzang and is moving reconstruction supplies via Kalay, including hospitals, schools and government repairs. Energy push: The Ministry of Electricity and Energy plans 40 power/energy projects to meet fast-rising demand, including solar and hydropower sites. Infrastructure governance: Yangon–Mandalay expressway toll gates are upgrading to technology-based fee collection using telematic systems and weighbridge checks. Regional security narratives: A commentary argues Quad diplomacy and statements are increasingly shaping how the world frames Myanmar’s crisis, including humanitarian access and the regional scam threat. Conflict on the ground: DVB reports Myanmar Air Force strikes in Mon State killed 12 resistance fighters in Ye Township. Ethnic media expansion: Radio Veritas Asia adds Akha and Kayan language services, extending Catholic broadcasting to remote minority communities.